The 2015 CCC and Qualifying in the Algaeu Panaroma Ultra Marathon (Part I)

Two surprising things happened to me in 2014.

1) I got the two qualification points I needed to enter the 2015 CCC at the UTMB.
2) I actually got a place in the race this year.

This is surprising since having not got a place in the CCC last year, then being downed for the first three months of 2014 with a back injury I decided to take a rest year in 2014. Though looking back at the training diary I still clocked a little over 2000KM for the year I definitely did less of the hard fast training that had been a theme of 2013. By June I had pretty much given up on the idea of running a 2 pointer – I new this would mean a long (>60km) mountain (> +3000m hight gain) type race and I was not in the shape to even train properly let alone run it. Then in July the tide changed.

We had the long summer holiday ahead of us – nearly 3 weeks in the Dolomites around the Latemar and Rosengarten mountain ranges. We stayed at a fantastic agri-tourismo farm (Shadnerhof) located at about 1600m above sea level and not to far away trails leading up to nearly 3000m. The first few runs I did here were pretty tough, my lungs looking for air that wasn’t there, but I quickly acclimatized and headed to some of the more challenging trails. The Dolomites are an amazing mountain group – dramatic, sheer, brutal and more technical than anything I had run before. Different trails have different rhythms and it always takes a while to find the right technique in a new place, but here it required careful concentration not to twist your ankles on the rough ground.

“Difficult Mountain Way” on the Latemar

But worth the effort.

Anyway I did few runs up over 2800m and there is a nice snow covered “bowl” at the top of the mountain and had great fun doing some speed work up there on the snow in the middle of summer!

By the time the three weeks were up I was looking and feeling pretty strong again. A combination of the running, living high up and spending the rest of the time on my feet walking with the family meant I was mountain fit again. On the final day I did a run up Torre di Pisa (+2671m) – I passed an Italian man on the way up, he turned to his son and said “forte!” (strong) which really pushed me on.

Driving home we passed through the Algaeuer Alpen in southern Germany. I was pretty sad to be leaving the mountains and knew that a 2 point ultra covering 70KM with +3000m of total elevation gain was happening in the Algaeu in 3 weeks. I was definitely not ready to give up the UTMB dream or the mountains for that year.

(I’ll deal with what happened in the Algaeu in the next part)

Rejection. A Statistical Analysis.

So like many others I didn’t get lucky in the draw for the UTMB CCC, and the dream is not happening this year boo hoo.

So I have a choice to make – either I can transfer my entry to the TDS race (116km +7000m) or take a coefficient of two in next years draw (i.e. I get two tickets in the draw). One consideration in favour of the coefficient of two option is that it gives me another year to prepare and do some serious mountain running. That way I stand a better chance of success next year (if I get a place). On the other hand I would be disappointed at not getting a place next year too.

So what is my (or your) coefficient of two actually worth? A natural question for any runner with a background in the mathematical sciences to ask.

Well this year I was told that I had a 1 in 2 chance of getting a place – there are 1900 places up for grabs so I can assume that 2×1900=3800 tickets were in the draw (so given that it was 174% over subscribed means only about 500 people had a coefficient of 2 this year). This means that if we assume a similar subscription rate next year, when the first ticket is drawn I have a 2/3800 chance of being pulled out of the hat.

Put more soberly I have a 3798/3800 chance of not being pulled out. For the second ticket I have a 3797/3799 chance (i.e. I still have 2 tickets in the hat but one has been pulled out), and by the third ticket a 3796/3798 chance of not being drawn. This continues until all 1900 places are drawn. My probability of not being pulled out of the hat on the first and the second and the third….and the 1900th draw are;

(3798/3800) x (3797/3799) x (3796/3798)……(1899/1901)
= 0.249

In other words I have a 24.9% chance of not being picked. My chances of being picked are then;

1-0.249 = 0.751

i.e. a 75.1% chance which seems pretty good and worth a punt. As the number of entries increases my chances naturally drop, and the chart below shows how the probability changes with total number of tickets in the draw.

Chances of success in the CCC ballot given a coeficient of 2.

The actual probability is a bit lower because about 15% of entries have a coefficient of 2 this year. The higher the percentage with a coefficient of two the less valuable my coefficient is (e.g. take the example when everyone has a coefficient of two, I am no better off than if everyone has a single ticket). Taking this into account my probability of being drawn reduces to about 70%.

These races are growing and given that half the people (1900) in this draw were rejected we can make some assumptions about next years draw:
1) Let’s assume half swapped to the TDS (another race) leaving 950 with a coefficient of 2.
2) Let’s assume of those remaining 75% enter the draw next year. This means 0.75×950=712 people will have coefficient of two next year.
3) Let us also assume a 10% growth rate in overall numbers, so the race is 1.1×1.74 = 191% over -subscribed. This would translate to a total of 4399 tickets in the draw including those with a coefficient of two.

Taking into account our assumptions for those with a coefficient of two next year we can calculate a probability of getting into the race of just 61%.

So given the growth in the race the chances next year are not that much better than the 50/50 that we had this year with one chance.

Anyway all of this begs the question “am I overthinking it”!

Starting Slow

The draw for places in the CCC takes place this Wednesday and i’m obviously starting to get excited and apprehensive about it. In part the apprehension is to do with doubting my own ability to complete the race and my instincts are telling me to start bagging some big runs early. I am however resisting the urge knowing that August is a long way off. Putting in too much distance work too early is more likely to leave me overtrained and fatigued later in the year than deliver results.

No! Much better is to start the year slow and draw a straight line between now an August. Now is the time to build a base of strength and to get mentally prepared, the endurance will come later and take care of itself. So 3 or 4 core stability sessions a week and 40 to 50km running each week is more than enough at this stage. I’m also eating and drinking what I want – being disciplined with diet can be mentally draining and so preparing for it now and building up fat stores will pay dividends later.

The best years are always the ones that start slow. Where you don’t know if a goal is attainable or from current levels of fitness and endurance they seem impossible. I remember this time last year I couldn’t run 10km at the pace that I commpleted Berlin in September, but the speed built up gradually through the year to deliver a great result. It’s important not to panic, to have faith, be patient and start slow at this time of year regardless of what distance you are training for.